Electric Vehicle Sales Expected to Rise Substantially in 2025

Despite the uncertain and tumultuous auto industry landscape in 2025, with trade wars, tariffs, and wavering subsidies looming large, electric vehicles (EVs) are poised for a significant boost. According to S&P Global Mobility, EV sales are expected to rise substantially next year, reaching 15.1 million units globally, up 30% from an estimated 11.6 million units in 2024.

Global Growth Expected, But Challenges Loom

“2025 is shaping up to be ultra-challenging for the auto industry, as key regional demand factors limit demand potential and the new U.S. administration adds fresh uncertainty from day one,” says Colin Couchman, executive director of global light vehicle forecasting for S&P Global Mobility.

US Challenges and Opportunities

• End of Federal Tax Incentive: The incoming Trump administration is reportedly planning to end the $7,500 tax incentive on the purchase or lease of an EV.
• Steep Tariffs: Trump wants to impose steep tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, among others. Affected countries are expected to retaliate with their own tariffs.
• State-Tax Rebates: California has indicated it will seek to revive state-tax rebates for electric vehicles should the Trump administration end federal incentives.

Regional Breakdown

China is leading the pack, with EV sales expected to reach 26.6 million in 2025, up 3% from 2024 levels. The market share of EVs is expected to reach 29.7% of Chinese vehicle sales.

EV sales in India and Japan are also expected to grow strongly next year, with S&P projecting significant growth in these regions as well.

North America and the Trump Administration

While Trump’s policies are “predictably unpredictable,” S&P says deregulation should still create tailwinds for the North American auto industry.

EV Market Share

Even in the U.S., EV market share is expected to continue to grow from 2024 levels, topping the 10% mark to reach 11.2% of overall vehicle sales, S&P says.