Will the iPhone 16 price rise or fall compared to last year?

One of the trends with flagship smartphones in recent years is that they’ve a tendency to jump up in price by a hundred or so dollars or pounds when a new generation gets released.

Whether you see this as cynical profiteering by big brands or just a reflection of increasing costs of raw materials and production, it can sting to see a phone you may have been eagerly waiting for come in at a higher price than you expected; we saw this with the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 6.

And one can’t help but speculate as to whether or not the iPhone 16 family will see a price hike, as after the Google Pixel 9 launch, this year’s new iPhones are next up.

Going by the rumors so far, we expect the iPhone 16 price across the whole rumored range to mostly follow the cadence of the iPhone 15 family, the prices of which you can see below.

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iPhone 15 range starting prices
Model	US price	UK price	AU price
iPhone 15	$799	£799	AU$1,499
iPhone 15 Plus	$899	£899	AU$1,649
iPhone 15 Pro	$999	£999	AU$1,849
iPhone 15 Pro Max	$1,199	£1,199	AU$2,199

These expectations are based on my having written about Apple devices for years, and having gained a feel for pricing trends when it comes to iPhones in particular. The competition from the best Android phones is pretty tight this year, meaning I don’t think Apple will want to have a suite of flagship-level phones that are dramatically more expensive than key rivals from the likes of Samsung, namely the Samsung Galaxy S24 range.

Normally, I’d anticipate a price increase based on expected major upgrades that would justify Apple asking for more for its phones, especially the Pro models. But taking a look at the rumored iPhone 16 specs and predicted iPhone 16 cameras, we’re not expecting huge upgrades for the iPhone 16. Sure, some Pro features like the Action button might filter down to the standard and Plus models, but I doubt those changes would be considered major enough for Apple to use them as an excuse to increase the prices of those phones.

Furthermore, there’s no sign that the standard iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus will get a 120Hz display; they’ll likely stick at 60Hz, and I feel that it would be difficult for Apple to ask for more for those phones without what I consider to be a much-needed upgrade.

With the iPhone 16 sure to get the smarter Siri and other neat features with iOS 18, and some potential Apple Intelligence tools, there’s scope for Apple to use AI as a reason to increase the price of its iPhones. But going by a reports that it could charge $20 a month for Apple Intelligence, I expect the folks at Cupertino will see AI software more as a separate service than something to be bundled into iPhones.

So in short, I’m not forecasting a price increase with the iPhone 16. And I’m also fairly convinced that the arrival of these next-gen phones will see the iPhone 15 price come down, meaning you should hold fire on buying a new iPhone until around mid-September; if you’re desperate for a new phone, makes sure to check out our iPhone deals page.