Apple’s iPhone 16: A Shocking Slump in Popularity Amidst Competition

iPhone 16: The Shortest Lead Time in Five Years? A Sign of Sluggish Demand

Apple’s latest iPhone release, the iPhone 16, has generated significant buzz in the tech world. However, a recent survey by Morgan Stanley has revealed that the demand for this device is far lower than expected. In fact, the lead time for the iPhone 16 is the shortest in five years, indicating a potential slump in demand.

A Closer Look at the Lead Times

The lead times for the iPhone 16 family are remarkably short compared to its predecessors. Here’s a breakdown of the numbers:

• iPhone 16 Pro Max: 25.5 days (vs 43.5 days in 2023)
• iPhone 16 Pro: 18.5 days (vs 32.5 days in 2023)
• iPhone 16: 9 days (vs 14 days in 2023)
• iPhone 16 Plus: 7.9 days (vs 13.9 days in 2023)

Morgan Stanley’s Insights

Morgan Stanley’s survey of lead times suggests that the average iPhone 16 lead time is 14 days, the shortest in five years. The company believes that there’s a 50% chance that Apple will trim its supply orders. However, they also caution that delivery times aren’t always a reliable indicator of performance during the early days of a product launch.

What’s Driving the Short Lead Times?

So, what’s behind the short lead times for the iPhone 16? Morgan Stanley suggests that early buyers are upgrading due to their old phones being due for an upgrade or wanting a better camera and improved battery life. AI doesn’t seem to be a major factor in purchase decisions right now, possibly because Apple Intelligence is still in beta.

Other Signs of Sluggish Demand

Multiple indicators, including weak pre-order demand and early employee discounts, have been pointing to sluggish demand for the iPhone 16. While there have been some promising reports, Morgan Stanley’s observations add weight to the notion that the phones are not off to a strong start.

Historical Context

Historically, lead times have been a reliable indicator of demand. Shorter lead times often point to an underwhelming launch. With the iPhone 16’s lead times being the shortest in five years, it’s clear that demand is not as strong as expected.

Image Credit: Morgan Stanley

Lead times for different iPhone models.